The $1 million Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) is one of two highly-anticipated Group 1 features on the Super Saturday of Racing programme at Flemington this weekend and here the Races.com.au team give our readers the best 2011 Newmarket Handicap Form Guide & Betting Analysis.
The 2011 Newmarket Handicap is scheduled to run as Flemington Race 6 this Saturday, due to jump at 2:35pm (AEDST) and 12 top horses are set to face off in the sprint feature.
Black Caviar is the Newmarket Handicap odds-on favourite
Black Caviar is out to smash a number of historical records with a victory in the Newmarket Handicap on Saturday.
Unbeaten in her nine career starts to date, another victory will see the Bel Esprit four-year-old become the first Aussie turf star to win their first 10 metro starts consecutively.
The 58.5kg topweight of the Newmarket Handicap field, Black Caviar will also break a weight-carrying record if she scores her third Group 1 victory as the punters expect she will.
She has the speed, record, talent, breeding and fan base that add up to a Newmarket Handicap win but there are 11 other quality horses in the Newmarket field and there is still the unlikely but possible chance of an upset.
Out to try and put a stop to Black Caviar’s flawless succession of wins are the likes of Lightning Stakes runner-up Hay List, dual Group 1 winning colt Star Witness, Golden Slipper winning filly Crystal Lily and smart Lonhro mare Beaded.
Below the Races.com.au team reveal the insider Newmarket Handicap betting advice based on the stats and facts found in the race field and form guide so you can assess whether Black Caviar is already the winner and find the best picks for the placings.
Newmarket Handicap Betting & Field Tips Based on Form Guide Facts
- #1 Black Caviar is the only unbeaten Newmarket hopeful boasting a perfect Win Rate of 100%
- #2 Hay List has the next best career record with a Win Rate of 75% explaining his second favouritism in the Newmarket odds
- Black Caviar has also won twice at this track and distance and is undefeated in her six starts over 1200m
- Hay List also has a brilliant record over 1200m with six wins from seven starts
- Other horses that have run and won at the track and distance are #3 Eagle Falls, #4 Grand Duels, #5 Star Witness and #10 Snapparazi ($251 roughie of the field at Luxbet)
- Aside from raging favourite Black Caviar, #3 Eagle Falls and #6 Beaded are the two other last-start winners
- Black Caviar is prepared by Peter Moody and will be ridden by Luke Nolen, the same trainer / jockey combo that won the Newmarket with Wanted last year
- Along with Black Caviar (Luke Nolen), five other horses will be ridden by previous Newmarket Handicap winning jockeys with Eagle Falls (Damien Oliver), Grand Duels (Danny Nikolic), Beaded (Craig Newitt), King Pulse (Corey Brown) and Crystal Lily (Stephen Baster)
- #12 Hinchinbrook (Peter Moody) and Eagle Falls (David Hayes) are the other two runners in the field prepared by Newmarket Handicap winning trainers
- The 2010 Newmarket Handicap was won by the then 3YO Wanted and the three-year-olds in this year’s race are Star Witness, Crystal Lily and Hinchinbrook
- Hinchinbrook and Crystal Lily are also the two 50kg lightweights in the race
- Crystal Lily ($51 Luxbet) is the highest-earner in the field having won over $2.3 million in prize-money
- Based on their Place Rate of 50% Hinchinbrook emerges as the best Place chance along with Response (45%)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au in the lead-up to Saturday’s bumper Flemington meet as we will publish the best Newmarket Handicap race tips, betting updates and then comprehensive coverage on the day as well.
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2011 Newmarket Handicap Field & Form Guide
Flemington Race 6 – 12/03/2011
| No | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Bar | Wgt | Age | Prize | Career | W% | P% | Last 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BLACK CAVIAR | P G MOODY | L NOLEN | 8 | 58 | 4yo | $1,694,250.00 | 9:9-0-0 | 100% | 0% | 1x1x111x1 |
| 2 | HAY LIST | J C MCNAIR | G SCHOFIELD | 3 | 56.5 | 5yo | $1,106,125.00 | 16:12-2-0 | 75% | 12% | 1x1116x2 |
| 3 | EAGLE FALLS | D A HAYES | D OLIVER | 12 | 55 | 5yo | $997,883.00 | 21:7-2-1 | 33% | 14% | 5x347x71 |
| 4 | GRAND DUELS | B COZAMANIS | D NIKOLIC | 11 | 54 | 7yo | $774,910.00 | 38:10-4-4 | 26% | 21% | 1×01114 |
| 5 | STAR WITNESS | D T O’BRIEN | B MELHAM | 2 | 53 | 3yo | $1,182,200.00 | 9:4-1-2 | 44% | 33% | 0x3x412x3 |
| 6 | BEADED | PETER SNOWDEN | C NEWITT | 7 | 52.5 | 5yo | $661,180.00 | 17:9-3-4 | 53% | 41% | 3143x2x1 |
| 7 | CHASM | HEATH CONNERS | J BENBOW | 9 | 52 | 6yo | $665,113.00 | 31:8-5-6 | 26% | 35% | 3943×23 |
| 8 | KING PULSE | M D MORONEY | C W BROWN | 6 | 52 | 4yo | $200,025.00 | 5:2-1-0 | 40% | 20% | 112x4x7 |
| 9 | RESPONSE | M ELLERTON & S ZAHRA | CRAIG WILLIAMS | 10 | 52 | 4yo | $495,775.00 | 11:3-4-1 | 27% | 45% | 22103×7 |
| 10 | SNAPPARAZI | MS B MARSHMAN | D YENDALL | 4 | 52 | 4yo | $110,900.00 | 8:4-1-0 | 50% | 12% | 4x2111x6 |
| 11 | CRYSTAL LILY | M ELLERTON & S ZAHRA | S BASTER | 1 | 50 | 3yo | $2,328,000.00 | 10:4-2-1 | 40% | 30% | 111x20x5 |
| 12 | HINCHINBROOK | P G MOODY | J MASKIELL | 5 | 50 | 3yo | $425,300.00 | 10:2-0-5 | 20% | 50% | 3x0373x3 |
*Flemington Race 6 Form Guide Crediat [iasbet]
Photo courtesy (c) Taron Clarke Photography
